October 13, 2026
POHNPEI — Pohnpei and Kosrae face an increased risk of very dry conditions in November and December, according to an October 12 rainfall advisory that identifies potential threats to water supplies, crops and public services.
The Early Action Rainfall Watch for the two states forecasts a very high chance of very dry conditions in November for Oroluk, Pohnpei, Mokil, Pingelap and Ngatik. Kosrae has a high chance, while Kapingamarangi has a medium chance.
For December, the advisory forecasts a very high chance of very dry conditions across Oroluk, Pohnpei, Mokil, Pingelap, Kosrae, Ngatik and Nukuoro. Kapingamarangi remains in the medium-chance category.
The outlook follows a mixed rainfall picture in September. Ngatik, Kosrae and Nukuoro experienced very dry conditions during the month, while no extreme conditions were recorded for Oroluk, Pohnpei, Mokil, Pingelap or Kapingamarangi.
Over the three months from July through September, however, most locations experienced very wet conditions. Nukuoro was very dry over that period, while Kapingamarangi recorded no extreme conditions.
The advisory outlines how prolonged dry weather could affect communities, with impacts becoming more extensive the longer conditions persist.
In Pohnpei, a month of very dry conditions could affect shallow-rooted crops such as cucumbers, peppers, eggplant and cabbage, and could lead to scheduled water service. Around three months of dryness could affect sakau, reduce dam levels, dry up outer-island wells and increase fire risks. Longer periods could threaten additional food crops and reduce river and stream levels.
For Kosrae, the advisory identifies household water supplies, drinking water, water pressure and garden irrigation among the concerns associated with a month of very dry conditions. Continued dryness could affect a wider range of crops, small streams and freshwater fish.
These are potential impacts rather than reports of current damage. The advisory cautions that the time frames are estimates and that conditions will vary with island size, geology and soil type.
It also notes that wet periods provide opportunities for island communities to collect and store rainwater for future dry periods. Residents and sector managers seeking further information about potential impacts are directed to their local Disaster Coordination Office.
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